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A powerful Super El Niño developing in the tropical Pacific has nearly matched the highest daily temperature anomaly ever recorded, raising concerns that its strongest global effects could emerge in 2027.
According to an analysis by climate publication Carbon Brief, the current El Niño event reached a Niño-3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly of 3.07 degrees Celsius on September 19, just shy of the previous daily record of 3.08 degrees Celsius set during the major 2015 El Niño episode.
The Niño-3.4 index measures how much sea surface temperatures in a key region of the central tropical Pacific deviate from the long-term average and is widely used to gauge the strength of El Niño events.
Climate scientist Zeke Hausfather described the development as particularly notable not only because of its intensity, but also because it has reached such levels unusually early. El Niño events typically peak during the Northern Hemisphere winter, often in November or December.
The current event, which began in June, has intensified more rapidly than previous El Niño episodes in the historical record, according to the analysis. Since early June, its strength has consistently exceeded that of comparable years. By early September, the strong El Niño events of 1997 and 2015 were showing anomalies of around 1.9 degrees Celsius, more than one degree below current levels.
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern characterized by unusually warm waters in the tropical Pacific Ocean. The phenomenon can influence weather patterns around the world and temporarily boost global average temperatures.
Its impact on worldwide temperatures generally occurs with a delay of several months, as atmospheric responses lag behind the warming of Pacific waters. As a result, the most significant temperature effects may not be felt until next year and beyond.
Seasonal forecasting models suggest the current event could strengthen further before reaching its maximum intensity. Model projections indicate a potential peak around 4.1 degrees Celsius above normal conditions. According to Hausfather, this figure represents the median outcome across forecasting systems rather than an extreme scenario.
He noted that roughly 80 percent of 674 individual model simulations project peak values between 3.4 and 4.6 degrees Celsius.
Scientists are urging caution, however. An El Niño event of this magnitude has never been observed before, meaning forecasting systems have not been tested against a comparable real-world case.
If the projections prove accurate, the current Super El Niño would reach its peak between November and January and surpass all previous measurements on record. The most pronounced consequences, including a potential boost to global temperatures, are expected to become evident in 2027.
- source: heute.at/picture: pixabay.com
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